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Monte Carlo Simulation Agent

This agent runs 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulation iterations using log-normal distributions calibrated to member-specific volatility. It generates probabilistic forecasts with 5th/50th/95th percentile trajectories, calculates coverage lapse probabilities, and identifies the most likely month for eligibility threshold breaches.

Agent ID
monte-carlo-forecaster
Sector Financial Services / Insurance / Multiemployer Trust Fund Administration
Status
Operational

Problem Statement

The challenge addressed

Point forecasts of future hour balances fail to capture uncertainty, leaving members unprepared for adverse scenarios that could cause coverage gaps.

Core Logic

How the agent solves it

This agent runs 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulation iterations using log-normal distributions calibrated to member-specific volatility. It generates probabilistic forecasts with 5th/50th/95th percentile tr...

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